Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 12

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2620, -5.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10455, -2.84%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
3130, -9.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1316, -1.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
59.20, -9.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, -4.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1106, -0.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2252, -1.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.78, -1.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10137, -5.15%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.68, -1.63%
Bearish
Bearish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.83%, -0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
-55, -114.29%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
29.06, 67.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2775, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2719, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2539, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10824, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10562, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10047, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
19.23, 26.10%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.23, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
2
2
Bearish
Indications
14
15
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Retail sales, U.S – CPI, Retail sales, Oil
inventories, PPI
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 12
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply for the second week in a row. Signals are bearish
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are
still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from
which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and
surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. Indian market volatility is only 70% of US market volatility so
there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical
levels to watch are 2630 (up) and 2610(down) on the S & P and 10550 (up)
and 10350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could
trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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About rajveeronmarkets

I am an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. My research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and have over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets.
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