Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 19

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2732, 4.30%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10452, -0.03%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3199, 2.21%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1356, 3.08%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC
Crude
61.55, 3.97%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.25, 7.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1089, -1.54%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2405, 1.25%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
106.22, -2.35%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10502, 3.61%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.32, 1.79%
Bullish
Bullish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.88%, 1.70%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
-84, -53.79%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
19.46, -33.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
132
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2751, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2725, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2547, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10781, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10591, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10071, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
16.38, -14.83%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.39, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
11
11
Bearish
Indications
5
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 rebounded and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– RBA minutes, Euro Zone – German ZEW
economic sentiment, German GDP, German PMI, CPI, ECB minutes, German IFO
business climate index, UK – Carney
speech, Employment data, GDP, U.S
– Oil inventories, FOMC minutes, Home sales, Canada – Retail sales, CPI
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 19

The S and
P 500 rebounded and the Nifty was little changed last week. Indicators are bullish
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in
high yield, transports and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An
interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is below US
market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down
side. The critical levels to watch are 2740
(up) and 2720 (down)
on the S &
P
and 10550 (up) and 10350 (down)
on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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About rajveeronmarkets

I am an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. My research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and have over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets.
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