Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 26

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2747, 0.55%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10491, 0.37%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3289, 2.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1330, -1.91%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
63.55, 3.25%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.21, -1.11%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1167, 7.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2295, -0.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
106.82, 0.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10579, 0.73%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.26, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.87%, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse
Summation Index
-43, 48.88%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
16.49, -15.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
139
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2727, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2731, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2553, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10639, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10610, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10098, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.20, -13.28%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.84, 0.69%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
11
9
Bearish
Indications
3
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty were up slightly last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
China – PMI’s,
Euro Zone – German employment data,
German PMI, CPI, UK – PMI’s, U.S – Oil inventories, GDP, Powell
speech, Durable goods, Consumer confidence, Home sales, ISM PMI, Employment
data, Canada – GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 26
 Image from marketwatch.com

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty moved up slightly last week. Indicators are bullish for the
upcoming week. The recent rally has been supported by excessive fear which
continues to be at elevated levels. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet
to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result.
Divergences in high yield, transports and surging bond yields are flashing
warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market
volatility is below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch
up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2760 (up) and 2735 (down) on the S & P and 10550 (up) and
10400 (down)
on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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About rajveeronmarkets

I am an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. My research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and have over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets.
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