Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 05

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2691, -2.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10458, -0.31%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3255, -1.05%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1323, -0.52%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
61.25, -3.62%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.12, -2.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1167, 7.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2317, 0.18%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
105.73, -1.01%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10333, -2.32%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.00, -0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.86%, -0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse
Summation Index
-18, 58.93%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
19.59, 18.80%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
128
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2697, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2736, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2562, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10529, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10629, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10120, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.07, -0.92%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.19, 0.54%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
3
3
Bearish
Indications
10
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
Retail sales, GDP, RBA rate decision, Japan
– GDP, BOJ Rate decision, Euro Zone
Italian elections, ECB rate decision, UK
– Services PMI, GDP,  U.S – Oil inventories, ISM PMI, Employment
data, Canada – PMI, BOC rate decision,
Poloz speech, Employment data
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals march 05
Image from marketwatch.com

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the
upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully.
The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long
term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield,
transports and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate
shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is below US market
volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The
critical levels to watch are 2700 (up)
and 2680 (down)
on the S & P
and 10550 (up) and 10400 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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About rajveeronmarkets

I am an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. My research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and have over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets.
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