Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 12

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2787, 3.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10227, -2.21%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
3307, 1.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1324, 0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC
Crude
62.04, 1.29%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.14, 0.37%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic
Dry Index
1201, 0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.2307, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.77, 0.98%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10740, 3.94%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.09, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.89%, 1.30%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
164, 1023.97%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
14.64, -25.27%
Bullish
Bearish
Skew
128
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2714, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2742, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2571, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10420, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10606, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10140, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.52, 3.22%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.93, -0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
10
6
Bearish
Indications
1
6
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The
S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
New Zealand
GDP, China – Industrial production,
Euro Zone – German ZEW economic
sentiment, CPI, Switzerland – SNB rate
decision, U.S – CPI, Retail sales,
Oil inventories, Canada – Poloz
speech
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals march 12
Image from marketwatch.com
The S and
P 500 rallied and the Nifty sharply under performed last week. Indicators are mixed
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in
high yield and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate
shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is still below US market
volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The
critical levels to watch are 2800 (up)
and 2775 (down)
on the S & P
and 10300 (up) and 10150 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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About rajveeronmarkets

I am an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. My research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and have over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets.
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