Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 02

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2641, 2.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10114, 1.16%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3160, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1327, -1.67%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
64.94, -1.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, 1.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1080, -3.31%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2304, -0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.41, 1.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10397, 2.29%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.70, 0.65%
Bullish
Bullish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.74%, -3.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
16, -88.01%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
19.97, -19.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
119
Neutral
Bearish
20
DMA, S and P 500
2704, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2730, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2589, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10245, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10518, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10180, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India
Vix
15.76, 1.37%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.03, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
8
8
Bearish
Indications
6
8
Outlook
Bearish
Neutral
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty bounced back last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
RBA rate decision, Retail sales,  Japan
– Tankan survey, China – PMI, Euro Zone – CPI, German PMI, UK – PMI’s, Carney speech, U.S – ISM PMI, Oil inventories, Employment
data, Powell speech, Canada – PMI,
Employment data,  India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals april 02
Image from marketwatch.com 
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming
week. Given the extremely bearish sentiment and the 200 DMA hold a short term
bottom is likely in and the rally may prolong till 2700 before the bears take
over again. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe haven
asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still well
below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on
the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2650 (up) and 2630 (down) on the S & P and 10200 (up) and
10000 (down)
on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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About rajveeronmarkets

I am an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. My research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and have over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets.
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