Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 11

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2930, 3.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9252, -6.17%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
2895, 1.23%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1705, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC
Crude
24.62,
16.29%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.415,
5.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
514, -16.69%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0839,
-1.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
106.68,
-0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
8333, 2.30%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (Bond)
98.40,
1.49%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10
year Bond Yield
0.685%,
10.82%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
160, 160.38%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
27.98,
-24.76%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
132
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2843, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2730, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
3002, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
9212, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
9551, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
11140,
Below
Neutral
Bearish
S
& P 500 P/E
21.01
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty
P/E
21.28
Neutral
Bearish
India
Vix
38.41,
13.00%
Neutral
Bearish-
Dollar/Rupee
75.54,
-0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
10
8
Bearish
Indications
5
8
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The S
and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are leaning bullish
for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
UK – GDP, US – CPI, PPI, Eurozone – German GDP,  China – CPI
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

  
stock market signals may 11

The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week.
Indicators are slightly bullish for the coming week. The
S & P is failing again and it is headed
to 1800 in the medium term
. It is overvalued, overbought and out of touch
with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue
resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as
800 on the S and P.
QE forever from
the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have
made a major top in global equity markets
. The market is looking like the short of a
life time
with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices
and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is
a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500
. The recent global
virus epidemic (black swan) is
likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from
bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under
performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in
key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of
bearish divergences and
over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year
great depression
. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for
the week are 2940 (up) and 2920
(down)
 on the S & P 500 and 9350 (up) and 9150 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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About rajveeronmarkets

I am an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. My research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and have over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets.
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