Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 18

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2864, -2.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
9137, -1.24%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
2869, -0.93%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1753, 2.29%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC
Crude
29.52,
19.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.33, -3.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
407, -20.82%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0820,
-0.19%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
107.04,
0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
7761, -6.86%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (Bond)
97.13,
-1.29%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10
year Bond Yield
0.64%,
-7.02%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
79, -50.75%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
31.89,
13.97%
Bearish
Bullish
Skew
125
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2856, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA,
S and P 500
2713, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2998, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
9278, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
9292, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
11080,
Below
Neutral
Bearish
S
& P 500 P/E
20.53
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty
P/E
20.98
Neutral
Bearish
India
Vix
38.02,
-1.02%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
75.83,
0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
5
5
Bearish
Indications
10
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
UK – Employment
data, CPI, Eurozone – CPI,  China – PBOC rate decision, Japan – GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals may 18

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are
bearish for the coming week. The markets are very
close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed to 1800 in the medium term. It is overvalued, overbought and out
of touch with economic realities. Long
term,
the epic meltdown is set to
continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as
low as 800 on the S and P.
QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets
. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports,
other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown
in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P
500
. The recent global virus epidemic (black
swan)
is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think.
The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for
significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5 year
deflationary wave
has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks
and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and
over
stretched valuations
. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The
critical levels to watch for the week
are 2875 (up) and 2850 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9250 (up) and 9050
(down)
 on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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About rajveeronmarkets

I am an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. My research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and have over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets.
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