Mid Week Market Insight

The contagion in Turkey appears to be spreading to Brazil, with the Brazilian Real hitting new lows. The US economy continues to hum along with rate hikes on track despite emerging market woes and the strong dollar. The US markets continue to trade near record highs despite developing divergences. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT’s of today:

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 20

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2850, 0.59%
Bullish
Neutral
Nifty
11471, 0.36%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
2669, -4.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1184, -2.85%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
65.21, -3.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.63, -4.14%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1723, 1.89%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1444, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
110.57, -0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
11228, 1.24%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.86, 0.14%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.87%, 0.56%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
427, -13.34%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.64, -3.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
146
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2833, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2793, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2715, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11310, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11015, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10619, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.16, 2.41%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.78, 1.01%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S & P 500
Nifty
Bullish Indications
7
6
Bearish Indications
7
8
Outlook
Neutral
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was and the Nifty were
up last week. Indicators are mixed.
The markets are close to making
secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Euro Zone – German GDP, U.S – FED Speak, Canada – Retail sales
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock
charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals august 20

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming
week. This rally is close to a major
secondary top
in key asset classes which is going to be followed by a
massive selloff most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by
the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3
standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections
usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for
the week are 2860 (up) and 2840
(down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11550 (up) and 11400 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison.
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Why a Massive Selloff in Risk Assets Could be Just a Few Days Away?

First market breadth is diverging with the New 52 week high low indicator not confirming the recent retest of highs in the S and P 500:

S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Stocks at 52-Wk Highs Minus Lows (S&P 500 NH-NL)

High beta segment of the market such as the Nasdaq is beginning to under perform the broader market much like in 2000:

S&P 500 vs Nasdaq Relative to its 200-Day Moving Average (Nasdaq R200)

The Skew Vix ratio as shown on stockcharts has spiked into double digits recently suggesting high tail risk, which is often a precursor to rising volatility and a risk off trade set up:

skew vix ratio

All this as we are in the middle of an emerging market currency crisis much like in 1998 unsupported by a tightening FED:

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Why a Massive Selloff in Risk Assets Could be Just a Few Days Away?

First market breadth is diverging with the New 52 week high low indicator not confirming the recent retest of highs in the S and P 500:

S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Stocks at 52-Wk Highs Minus Lows (S&P 500 NH-NL)

High beta segment of the market such as the Nasdaq is beginning to under perform the broader market much like in 2000:

S&P 500 vs Nasdaq Relative to its 200-Day Moving Average (Nasdaq R200)

The Skew Vix ratio as shown on stockcharts has spiked into double digits recently suggesting high tail risk, which is often a precursor to rising volatility and a risk off trade set up:

skew vix ratio

All this as we are in the middle of an emerging market currency crisis much like in 1998 unsupported by a tightening FED:

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 13

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2833, -0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11430, 0.60%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2795, 2.00%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1219, -0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
67.63, -1.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.74, -0.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1691, -4.62%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1418, -1.36%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.83, -0.38%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
11090, -0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
35.81, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.86%, -3.25%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
421, -8.82%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.16, 13.06%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
149
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2825, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2785, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2709, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11222, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10956, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10598, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.85, 6.40%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.08, 0.86%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S & P 500
Nifty
Bullish Indications
5
6
Bearish Indications
7
8
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was down and the
Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets are close to making
secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia Employment
data, Euro Zone – German GDP,
CPI, U.K
Employment data, CPI, Retail sales, U.S – Retail sales, Canada – CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock
charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals august 13

The S and
P 500 fell and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish for the
upcoming week. This rally is close to a major
secondary top
in key asset classes which is going to be followed by a
massive selloff. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in
fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is
also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2845 (up) and 2820 (down) on the S
& P
 500 and 11500
(up) and 11300 (down)
 on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Mid Week Market Insight

The Turkish economy and Lira in complete free fall as bond yields eclipse 20%. Chinese stocks continue to post declines and a hard Brexit looks increasingly likely. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT’s of today:

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 06

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2840, 0.76%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11361, 0.73%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2740, -4.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1223, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
68.49, -0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.76, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1773, 5.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1575, -0.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.25, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
11097, 1.28%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.87, 0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.95%, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
462, -20.53%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.64, -10.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
146
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2811, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2771, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2702, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11105, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10881, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10567, Above
Neutral
Neutral
India Vix
12.08, -1.89%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.49, -0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S & P 500
Nifty
Bullish Indications
7
8
Bearish Indications
5
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up
last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets are close to making
secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – RBA rate decision, New Zealand – RBNZ
rate decision, U.K – GDP, U.S
 – PPI, CPI, Canada – Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock
charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals august 06

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming
week. This rally is close to a major
secondary top
in key asset classes. Quantitative tightening by the FED is
yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2850 (up) and 2830
(down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11450 (up) and 11250 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Some Interesting Market Divergences

The recent up move in the market has come on waning market momentum and declining market breadth. Also the very narrow leadership shown by the FANG stocks is now developing cracks. With valuations still in the stratosphere and tightening by the FED still not priced in, these divergences are worth considering. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT’s of today:

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 30

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2819, 0.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11278, 2.44%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2874, 1.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1223, -0.66%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
68.69, 0.63%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.80, 1.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1708, 3.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1661, -0.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.98, -0.45%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10957, 2.01%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.84, 0.36%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.96%, 2.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
581, -9.98%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.03, 1.32%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
145
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2788, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2762, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2695, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10957, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10800, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10538, Above
Neutral
Neutral
India Vix
12.31, -9.05%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.60, -0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S & P 500
Nifty
Bullish Indications
9
10
Bearish Indications
6
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up
last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets are close to making
secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – BOJ rate decision, New Zealand – Employment data, Europe
– German employment data, CPI, U.K – BOE rate decision, U.S
 – FOMC rate
decision, Employment data, Canada
GDP, India – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock
charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals july 30

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming
week. This rally is close to a major
secondary top
in key asset classes. Quantitative tightening by the FED is
yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2830 (up) and 2805
(down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11400 (up) and 11200 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Mid Week Market Insight

A bit of curve steepening going into next weeks fed meeting. Momentum clearly outpacing value and that ever expanding ECB balance sheet. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT’s of today:

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