FED Balance Sheet Vs Emerging Market Volatility Vs Stock Market Capitalization to GDP

The assets on the FED balance sheet stands at well over 4.4 trillion dollars, this has coincided with record low emerging market volatility and highly inflated levels of stock market capitalization to GDP globally. With the FED beginning a slow tapering process, some sort of mean reversal is on the cards which could result in an uptick in emerging market volatility and a pull back of some sort in global stock market indices:

//fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=gI4A&width=670&height=475
//fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=gRyZ&width=670&height=475
//fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=gRxC&width=670&height=475

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 18

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2676, 0.92%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10333, 0.66%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3266, -0.73%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1258, 0.73%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC
Crude
57.33, -0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
3.13, 5.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1668, -0.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1750, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
112.60, -0.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10393, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
High
Yield (ETF)
36.70, -0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.35%, -1.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
484, -0.79%
Neutral
Bearish
US
Vix
9.42, -1.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
136
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2630, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2594, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2468, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10263, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10249, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
9748, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.94, 9.27%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.05, -0.68%
Neutral
Bullish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
8
10
Bearish
Indications
3
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
market is topping. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– RBA minutes, New Zealand – GDP, Japan – Rate decision, China – Industrial
production, Euro Zone – CPI, German IFO Index, UK – GDP, U.S – Building
permits, Home sales, Oil inventories, GDP, Durable goods,  Canada – Employment data, Retail sales, CPI,
GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals december 18

The S and
P 500 made a new high and the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are bullish for
the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in
and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still
trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2685 (up) and 2665(down)
on the S & P and 10400 (up) and 10250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant
breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.
You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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Bitcoin 2017 Vs Home Builders 2008 Vs Nasdaq 2000

Most periods of excessive booms end with speculative busts. The dotcom bust of 2000 produced a recession so did the housing bust of 2008. Today’s poster child seems to be bitcoin. Just as the internet was here to stay back in 2000 so is block chain technology today. However crypto currencies are trading at levels suggesting they could become reserve currencies of the world replacing the dollar and that implies a reset on short order. It’s never different and always the same:

speculative bubbles

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 11

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2652, 0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10266, 1.43%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3290, -0.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1248, -2.64%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
57.36, -1.71%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.98, -3.69%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1679, 6.40%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1773, -1.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
113.46, 1.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10403, 2.12%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.76, 0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.38%, 0.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
488, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
US
Vix
9.58, -16.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
133
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2609, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2581, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2461, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10247, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10206, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
9714, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
13.67, -7.59%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.49, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
7
9
Bearish
Indications
6
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– Employment data, Japan – Tankan business survey, China – Industrial production,
Euro Zone – German ZEW economic sentiment, German PMI, ECB rate decision, UK
– CPI, PMI, CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, Rate decision, Switzerland –
Rate decision, U.S – PPI, Oil inventories, CPI, FOMC rate decision, Retail
sales, Russia – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals december 11

The S and
P 500 made a new high and the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are bullish for
the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in
and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still
trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2660 (up) and 2640
(down) on the S & P and 10350 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Yield Curve about to Invert?

The spread between 10 year US bonds and 2 year US bonds is currently at 5 year lows and will likely go negative post the fed rate hike next week. This would most likely cause the US yield curve to invert and is a harbinger of a decelerating/recessionary economy going forward. Will tax cuts save the day? I doubt it.

//fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=gmr9&width=670&height=475

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 04

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2642, 1.53%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10122, -2.58%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
3318, -1.08%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1282, -0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC
Crude
58.36, -1.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.09, -2.41%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1578, 9.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1896, -0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
112.13, 0.55%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10187, 5.89%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.75, -0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.36%, 0.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
487, 25.11%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
11.43, 18.45%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2597, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2568, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2454, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10298, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10183, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
9680, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.80, 9.49%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.54, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
8
5
Bearish
Indications
5
9
Outlook
Bullish
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty broke down last week. Indicators are
mixed.
The
market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– Retail sales, Rate decision, GDP, Japan – GDP, UK – PMI’s, Manufacturing
production, U.S –Oil inventories, ISM PMI, Employment data, Canada – PMI, Rate
decision, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals december 04
The S and
P 500 made a new high and the Nifty broke down last week. Signals are mixed for
the upcoming week. It is looking rather ominous for the Indian market given the
under-performance. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and
sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still
trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2650 (up) and 2630
(down) on the S & P and 10200 (up) and 10000 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Are Mutual Funds the Best Investment Vehicles? Think Again!

Mutual funds are very good investment avenues for the
average investor. There is a popular belief that mutual funds are terrific
investment vehicles because they potentially diversify risk away. A look at
some of the best mutual funds in the recent past paints a rather interesting
picture:

mutual fund comparison
source: spotalpha.com
What is interesting in the above chart  is that the returns above closely track each
other. Funds that take high risk deliver higher returns while funds that take
lower risk deliver lower returns. Thus it appears that none of the funds are
consistently generating excess returns relative to the risk they are taking.

So how do we solve this problem? Why not consider an
optimized portfolio of stocks that can produce significantly superior returns
for a given level of risk? Enter the portfolio
optimizer tool
from Spotalpha.  Set
your maximum risk profile (say -10%). Identify stocks and keep optimizing till
you find a portfolio that provides maximum performance within identified risk
profile. Allocate to these stocks and comeback every 15 days or so to check if
there are any new re-balancing suggestions to the allocation. You are now on
the path to superior returns.
 An optimized portfolio of stocks like this
one
 delivered +154% return at a lower draw down risk
of -5%, when compared to the best mutual fund which delivered +28%
return for a draw down risk of -10% on an annual basis:
portfolio optimizer spotalpha

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 27

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2602, 0.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10390, 1.03%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3354, -0.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1287, -0.71%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
58.95, 3.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.17, 3.33%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1445, 6.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1925, 1.12%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.51, -0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
9620, 1.45%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.99, 0.54%
Bullish
Bullish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.34%, -0.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
389, 26.20%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
9.65, -15.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
131
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2585, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2555, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2447, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10324, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10166, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
9642, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
13.51, -1.46%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.55, -0.55%
Neutral
Bullish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
13
14
Bearish
Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On
the Horizon
China
– PMI, Euro zone – German employment data, German PMI, CPI, UK – PMI, U.S – New
and pending home sales, Consumer confidence, Yellen speech, Oil inventories,
GDP, ISM PMI, Canada – Poloz speech, Employment data, GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals november 27

The S and
P 500 made a new high and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are bullish for
the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in
and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still
trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2610 (up) and 2590
(down) on the S & P and 10500 (up) and 10300 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://ift.tt/2BeEhLY

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 27

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2602, 0.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10390, 1.03%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3354, -0.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1287, -0.71%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
58.95, 3.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.17, 3.33%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1445, 6.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1925, 1.12%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.51, -0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
9620, 1.45%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.99, 0.54%
Bullish
Bullish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.34%, -0.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
389, 26.20%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
9.65, -15.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
131
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2585, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2555, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2447, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10324, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10166, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
9642, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
13.51, -1.46%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.55, -0.55%
Neutral
Bullish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
13
14
Bearish
Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On
the Horizon
China
– PMI, Euro zone – German employment data, German PMI, CPI, UK – PMI, U.S – New
and pending home sales, Consumer confidence, Yellen speech, Oil inventories,
GDP, ISM PMI, Canada – Poloz speech, Employment data, GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals november 27

The S and
P 500 made a new high and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are bullish for
the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in
and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still
trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2610 (up) and 2590
(down) on the S & P and 10500 (up) and 10300 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://ift.tt/2BeEhLY

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 27

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2602, 0.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10390, 1.03%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3354, -0.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1287, -0.71%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
58.95, 3.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.17, 3.33%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1445, 6.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1925, 1.12%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.51, -0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
9620, 1.45%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.99, 0.54%
Bullish
Bullish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.34%, -0.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
389, 26.20%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
9.65, -15.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
131
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2585, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2555, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2447, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10324, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10166, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
9642, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
13.51, -1.46%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.55, -0.55%
Neutral
Bullish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
13
14
Bearish
Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On
the Horizon
China
– PMI, Euro zone – German employment data, German PMI, CPI, UK – PMI, U.S – New
and pending home sales, Consumer confidence, Yellen speech, Oil inventories,
GDP, ISM PMI, Canada – Poloz speech, Employment data, GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals november 27

The S and
P 500 made a new high and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are bullish for
the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in
and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still
trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2610 (up) and 2590
(down) on the S & P and 10500 (up) and 10300 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://ift.tt/2BeEhLY

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