Asset Class of the Week – USD/CAD

This will be part of a series where I feature an asset class which is either bullish or bearish on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. This weeks asset class of the week is the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) which is bullish across daily, weekly and monthly time frames. The Canadian Dollar is weak despite strong oil prices off late. Perhaps the Canadian dollar is signaling a weakening Canadian economy ahead or an upcoming collapse in oil prices due to broad based dollar strength. Data from investing.com:

USD/CAD Daily:

Canadian dollar daily

USD/CAD Weekly:

Canadian dollar weekly

USD/CAD Monthly:

Canadian dollar monthly


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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 05

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2691, -2.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10458, -0.31%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3255, -1.05%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1323, -0.52%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
61.25, -3.62%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.12, -2.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1167, 7.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2317, 0.18%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
105.73, -1.01%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10333, -2.32%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.00, -0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.86%, -0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse
Summation Index
-18, 58.93%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
19.59, 18.80%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
128
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2697, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2736, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2562, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10529, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10629, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10120, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.07, -0.92%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.19, 0.54%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
3
3
Bearish
Indications
10
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
Retail sales, GDP, RBA rate decision, Japan
– GDP, BOJ Rate decision, Euro Zone
Italian elections, ECB rate decision, UK
– Services PMI, GDP,  U.S – Oil inventories, ISM PMI, Employment
data, Canada – PMI, BOC rate decision,
Poloz speech, Employment data
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals march 05
Image from marketwatch.com

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the
upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully.
The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long
term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield,
transports and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate
shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is below US market
volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The
critical levels to watch are 2700 (up)
and 2680 (down)
on the S & P
and 10550 (up) and 10400 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 26

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2747, 0.55%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10491, 0.37%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3289, 2.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1330, -1.91%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
63.55, 3.25%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.21, -1.11%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1167, 7.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2295, -0.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
106.82, 0.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10579, 0.73%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.26, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.87%, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse
Summation Index
-43, 48.88%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
16.49, -15.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
139
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2727, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2731, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2553, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10639, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10610, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10098, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.20, -13.28%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.84, 0.69%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
11
9
Bearish
Indications
3
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty were up slightly last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
China – PMI’s,
Euro Zone – German employment data,
German PMI, CPI, UK – PMI’s, U.S – Oil inventories, GDP, Powell
speech, Durable goods, Consumer confidence, Home sales, ISM PMI, Employment
data, Canada – GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 26
 Image from marketwatch.com

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty moved up slightly last week. Indicators are bullish for the
upcoming week. The recent rally has been supported by excessive fear which
continues to be at elevated levels. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet
to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result.
Divergences in high yield, transports and surging bond yields are flashing
warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market
volatility is below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch
up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2760 (up) and 2735 (down) on the S & P and 10550 (up) and
10400 (down)
on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 19

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2732, 4.30%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10452, -0.03%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3199, 2.21%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1356, 3.08%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC
Crude
61.55, 3.97%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.25, 7.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1089, -1.54%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2405, 1.25%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
106.22, -2.35%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10502, 3.61%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.32, 1.79%
Bullish
Bullish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.88%, 1.70%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
-84, -53.79%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
19.46, -33.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
132
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2751, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2725, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2547, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10781, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10591, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10071, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
16.38, -14.83%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.39, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
11
11
Bearish
Indications
5
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 rebounded and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– RBA minutes, Euro Zone – German ZEW
economic sentiment, German GDP, German PMI, CPI, ECB minutes, German IFO
business climate index, UK – Carney
speech, Employment data, GDP, U.S
– Oil inventories, FOMC minutes, Home sales, Canada – Retail sales, CPI
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 19

The S and
P 500 rebounded and the Nifty was little changed last week. Indicators are bullish
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in
high yield, transports and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An
interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is below US
market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down
side. The critical levels to watch are 2740
(up) and 2720 (down)
on the S &
P
and 10550 (up) and 10350 (down)
on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Bond Yield Spike Signaling Brand New Crisis

A very interesting chart from Marketwatch.com that shows every time bond yields tagged their long term down trend line a crisis of some proportion erupted we finally manage to pop above that line sowing the seeds for the next major crisis:
financial crisis 2018
What is interesting is as Northmantrader points out the the S and  P 500 ten year yield ratio is showing signs of a major long term top suggesting a significant asset allocation out of stocks into bonds possibly on flight to quality fears when the next crisis commences:
stock bond ratio

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 12

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2620, -5.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10455, -2.84%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
3130, -9.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1316, -1.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
59.20, -9.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, -4.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1106, -0.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2252, -1.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.78, -1.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10137, -5.15%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.68, -1.63%
Bearish
Bearish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.83%, -0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
-55, -114.29%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
29.06, 67.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2775, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2719, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2539, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10824, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10562, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10047, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
19.23, 26.10%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.23, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
2
2
Bearish
Indications
14
15
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Retail sales, U.S – CPI, Retail sales, Oil
inventories, PPI
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 12
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply for the second week in a row. Signals are bearish
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are
still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from
which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and
surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. Indian market volatility is only 70% of US market volatility so
there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical
levels to watch are 2630 (up) and 2610(down) on the S & P and 10550 (up)
and 10350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could
trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://ift.tt/2o20NCO

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 12

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2620, -5.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10455, -2.84%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
3130, -9.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1316, -1.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
59.20, -9.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, -4.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1106, -0.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2252, -1.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.78, -1.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10137, -5.15%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.68, -1.63%
Bearish
Bearish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.83%, -0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
-55, -114.29%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
29.06, 67.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2775, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2719, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2539, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10824, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10562, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10047, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
19.23, 26.10%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.23, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
2
2
Bearish
Indications
14
15
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Retail sales, U.S – CPI, Retail sales, Oil
inventories, PPI
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 12
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply for the second week in a row. Signals are bearish
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are
still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from
which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and
surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. Indian market volatility is only 70% of US market volatility so
there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical
levels to watch are 2630 (up) and 2610(down) on the S & P and 10550 (up)
and 10350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could
trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://ift.tt/2o20NCO

Posted in Stock Market | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 12

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2620, -5.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10455, -2.84%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
3130, -9.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1316, -1.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
59.20, -9.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, -4.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1106, -0.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2252, -1.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.78, -1.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10137, -5.15%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.68, -1.63%
Bearish
Bearish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.83%, -0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
-55, -114.29%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
29.06, 67.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2775, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2719, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2539, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10824, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10562, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10047, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
19.23, 26.10%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.23, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
2
2
Bearish
Indications
14
15
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Retail sales, U.S – CPI, Retail sales, Oil
inventories, PPI
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 12
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply for the second week in a row. Signals are bearish
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are
still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from
which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and
surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. Indian market volatility is only 70% of US market volatility so
there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical
levels to watch are 2630 (up) and 2610(down) on the S & P and 10550 (up)
and 10350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could
trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://ift.tt/2o20NCO

Posted in Stock Market | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 12

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2620, -5.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10455, -2.84%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
3130, -9.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1316, -1.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
59.20, -9.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, -4.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1106, -0.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2252, -1.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.78, -1.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10137, -5.15%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.68, -1.63%
Bearish
Bearish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.83%, -0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
-55, -114.29%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
29.06, 67.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2775, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2719, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2539, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10824, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10562, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
10047, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
19.23, 26.10%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.23, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
2
2
Bearish
Indications
14
15
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Retail sales, U.S – CPI, Retail sales, Oil
inventories, PPI
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
stock market signals february 12
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply for the second week in a row. Signals are bearish
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are
still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from
which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and
surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. Indian market volatility is only 70% of US market volatility so
there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical
levels to watch are 2630 (up) and 2610(down) on the S & P and 10550 (up)
and 10350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could
trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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The Most Important Crowded Trade of All?

We have recently witnessed or are about to witness the implosion of a series of crowded trades namely long bitcoin, long Index ETF’s and short volatility. The most important crowded trade of all is the dollar carry trade and this has been in vogue since the early 1980’s. However the dollar appears to have broken out of its long term down trend line in the last 8 years post the great recession of 2008 though reluctantly so. When the real up move in the dollar occurs which is imminent look for massive carry trade liquidation and a rout in risky assets such as stocks, commodities and emerging market currencies:

//fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=idiA&width=670&height=475

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