Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 09

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3509, 7.32%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	12264, 5.34%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3312, 2.72%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1952, 3.84%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	37.46, 4.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.15, 3.36%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1196, -6.78%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1873, 1.94%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	103.36, -1.22%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	11615, 4.58%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (Bond ETF)	106.12, 1.74%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.82%, -4.48%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	141, 65.63%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	24.86, -34.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	125	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3426, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3401, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3132, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11864, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11596, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10697, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	35.37	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	33.09	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	20.50, -17.19%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	73.98, -0.78%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	14	16
Bearish Indications	3	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – Employment data, GDP, US – CPI, PPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

            The S and P and the Nifty ralled big
last week.
Indicators are bullish for the coming week. The epic crash signal is alive and well despite the massive upmove
suggesting a major top is imminent. The
moment of reckoning is upon us.  Technicals
and fundamentals are trending bearish. The market is yet to price in one of
the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history.
With extremely high valuations, a November crash is on the menu
following the recent weak bounce from the 50dma. Low volatility
suggests complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right
after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over
50% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After
extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is
emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is
repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is
set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year-end and we stay
there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown
and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are
overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long
term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year
plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The
market is looking like the short of a lifetime with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices, and commodities.
High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude is a precursor to yet another
massive drop in the S and P 500.

The recent global virus
epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP
significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most
think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are
getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant
underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.
A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes
like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences
and overstretched valuations. 

We are entering a multi-year
great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high of late as the yield curve inverts
into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3520
(up) and 3500 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12350
(up) and 12200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger https://ift.tt/2IfnAZB

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 02

 

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3270, -5.64%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11642, -2.41%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3225, -1.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1878, -1.39%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	35.77, -10.24%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	3.05, -2.45%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1283, -9.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1649, -1.77%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	104.67, -0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	11106, -6.51%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond ETF)	104.30, -1.15%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.87%, 3.89%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	85, -75.96%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	38.02, 38.00%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	129	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3424, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3402, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3130, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11808, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11549, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10707, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	32.95	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	31.90	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	24.75, 13.40%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	74.57, 1.00%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	1	2
Bearish Indications	15	16
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – BOE rate decision, US – Elections, FOMC rate decision, Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

            The S and P and the Nifty fell last
week.
Indicators are bearish for the coming week. The epic crash signal is here. The
moment of reckoning is upon us.  Technicals
and fundamentals are bearish. The market is yet to price in one of the worst
earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely
high valuations, a November crash is on the menu following the recent weak bounce
from the 50dma. Low volatility suggests complacency and more downside
ahead.

We rallied 46% right
after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over
50% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After
extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is
emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is
repeating the Japan experiment and the lost three decades in Japan (1989-2019) is
set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year-end and we stay
there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown
and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are
overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long
term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year
plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The
market is looking like the short of a lifetime with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices, and commodities.
High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude is a precursor to yet another
massive drop in the S and P 500.

The recent global virus
epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP
significantly and usher in a depression, much faster than most
think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are
getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant
underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.
A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like
the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences
and overstretched valuations. 

We are entering a multi-year
great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high of late as the yield curve inverts
into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3280
(up) and 3260 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11700
(up) and 11550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger https://ift.tt/321K4UK

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 26

 

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3465, -0.53%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11930, 1.43%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3278, -1.75%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1904, -0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	39.75, -2.76%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	3.14, 2.43%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1401, -5.15%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1862, 1.23%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	104.72, -0.65%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	11880, 0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (Bond ETF)	105.51, 0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.84%, 10.57%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	353, -8.41%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	27.55, 0.51%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	127	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3431, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3408, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3129, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11682, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11506, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10718, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	34.92	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	34.37	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	21.83, 0.84%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	73.84, 0.54%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	6
Bearish Indications	9	10
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – BOJ rate decision, Eurozone – German employment data, German GDP, ECB rate decision, CPI, US – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

            The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators
are bearish for the coming week. The
moment of reckoning is upon us.  The recent
bullish technicals observed are about to be trumped by bearish fundamentals. The
market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods
in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, an October /
November crash is on the menu following the recent bounce from the 50dma. Low
volatility suggests complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right
after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over
50% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After
extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is
emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is
repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is
set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year-end and we stay
there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown
and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are
overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long
term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year
plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The
market is looking like the short of a lifetime with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices, and commodities.
High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude is a precursor to yet another
massive drop in the S and P 500.

The recent global virus
epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP
significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most
think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are
getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant
underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.
A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes
like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences
and overstretched valuations. 

We are entering a multi-year
great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high of late as the yield curve inverts
into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3475
(up) and 3455 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12000
(up) and 11850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

 

via Blogger https://ift.tt/34sGLHI

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 19

 

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3484, 0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	11762, -1.27%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3336, 1.96%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1903, -1.21%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	41.12, 1.28%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.06, -0.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1561, -17.49%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1719, -0.89%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	105.40, -0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	11836, -0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (Bond ETF)	105.12, -0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.75%, -3.81%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	386, 44.36%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	27.41, 9.64%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	124	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3389, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3399, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3124, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11497, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11443, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10724, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	35.11	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	34.13	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	21.65, 6.21%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	73.44, 0.59%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	6
Bearish Indications	6	9
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	China – GDP, PBOC rate decision, UK – CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

            The S and P 500 was
unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the coming
week. The moment of reckoning is upon us.
 The recent bullish technicals observed are
about to be trumped by bearish fundamentals. The market is yet to price in one
of the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history.
With extremely high valuations, a October crash is on the menu
following the recent bounce from the 50dma. Low volatility suggests
complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right
after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 50%
in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After extreme
euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is
emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is
repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is
set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year-end and we stay
there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown
and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are
overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long
term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year
plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The
market is looking like the short of a lifetime with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices, and commodities.
High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude is a precursor to yet another
massive drop in the S and P 500.

The recent global virus
epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP
significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most
think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are
getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant
underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.
A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes
like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences
and overstretched valuations. 

We are entering a multi-year
great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high of late as the yield curve inverts
into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3500
(up) and 3470 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850
(up) and 11700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger https://ift.tt/3kfQ97a

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 12

 

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3477, 3.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11914, 4.36%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3272, 1.68%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1936, 1.51%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	40.55, 9.45%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.08, 3.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1970, -2.48%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1829, 0.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	105.61, 0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	11862, 5.00%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (Bond ETF)	105.48, 1.33%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.78%, 10.42%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	267, 802.50%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	25.00, -9.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	122	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3356, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3380, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3117, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11411, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11365, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10733, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	35.04	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	34.71	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	20.38, 11.06%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	73.02, -0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	14	14
Bearish Indications	3	4
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – CPI, UK – Employment data, Eurozone – CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

            The S and P 500 and the
Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the coming week. The moment of reckoning has arrived.  Currently bullish technicals are trumping
everything else. Just a matter of time before bearish fundamentals take over. The
market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods
in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a October
crash is on the menu following the recent bounce from the 50dma. Low
volatility suggests complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right
after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over
50% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After
extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is
emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is
repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is
set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year-end and we stay
there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown
and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are
overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long
term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year
plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The
market is looking like the short of a lifetime with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices, and commodities.
High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude is a precursor to yet another
massive drop in the S and P 500.

The recent global virus
epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP
significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most
think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are
getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant
underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.
A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes
like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences
and overstretched valuations. 

We are entering a multi-year
great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high of late as the yield curve inverts
into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3490
(up) and 3465 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12000
(up) and 11850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger https://ift.tt/3iK8s2Q

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 05

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3348, 1.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11417, 3.32%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3218, -0.04%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1904, 2.02%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	36.97, -8.15%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.98, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1869, 12.12%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1716, 0.74%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	105.30, -0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	11297, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (Bond ETF)	104.10, 0.99%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.70%, 7.04%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	30, 391.04%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	27.63, 4.74%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	119	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3342, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3362, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3112, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11315, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11310, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10745, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	28.78	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	33.18	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	18.35, -11.25%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	73.30, -0.51%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	11
Bearish Indications	5	4
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – GDP, UK – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

         The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week.
Indicators are bullish for the coming week. The moment of reckoning hass arrived. The recent selloff is finally
catching up to one of the worst earnings decline periods in
stock market history. With extremely high valuations amid a lot of
bearish divergences, a October crash is on the menu following the small dead
cat bounce from the 50dma, which is now resistance. Low volatility
suggests complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right
after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over
50% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month period. After
extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is
emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is
repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is
set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year-end and we stay
there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown
and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are
overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long
term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year
plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The
market is looking like the short of a lifetime with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices, and commodities.
High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to
yet another massive drop in the S and P 500.

The recent global virus
epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP
significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most
think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are
getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant
underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.
A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes
like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences
and overstretched valuations. 

We are entering a multi-year
great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high of late as the yield curve inverts
into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3360
(up) and 3335 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11500
(up) and 11350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for a comparison.
Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger https://ift.tt/36DlWLv

Interesting Market Views

 Here is a midweek take on markets from the pros I follow on Twitter:

✔️ #SPX S&P 500 repeats patterns from 1929, during the Great Depression https://t.co/6pe9ks71Mo

— The Tradable (@TheTradable) September 29, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Remember problem child Evergrande? https://t.co/evKBwpkX9f

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 30, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Credit protection – another move higher https://t.co/mXhKkzIuSQ

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 30, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

S&P 500 Bollinger Band Percent – no buy signal using Bollinger Bands on the daily chart – 3355 – 3365 key for Bulls to take out, for more up. A move under 3322 for an hour is a huge negative for this move up and suggests a failure. End of Quarter today. pic.twitter.com/f0vDEG063m

— David Larew (@ThinkTankCharts) September 30, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

China composite PMI vs Copper prices pic.twitter.com/tdHxnmd56o

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) September 30, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Transports testing top of the 5-year trading range. Its run out of gas three times near $200. Will it be different this time? https://t.co/U3R7eurYVh$IYT $SPX @MarketSmith @InvestorsBusinessDaily #IBDinfluencer #IBDpartner pic.twitter.com/yCQx40xIBM

— Chris Kimble (@KimbleCharting) September 24, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

via Blogger https://ift.tt/36is7nZ

Interesting Market Views

 Here is a midweek take on markets from the pros I follow on Twitter:

✔️ #SPX S&P 500 repeats patterns from 1929, during the Great Depression https://t.co/6pe9ks71Mo

— The Tradable (@TheTradable) September 29, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Remember problem child Evergrande? https://t.co/evKBwpkX9f

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 30, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Credit protection – another move higher https://t.co/mXhKkzIuSQ

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 30, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

S&P 500 Bollinger Band Percent – no buy signal using Bollinger Bands on the daily chart – 3355 – 3365 key for Bulls to take out, for more up. A move under 3322 for an hour is a huge negative for this move up and suggests a failure. End of Quarter today. pic.twitter.com/f0vDEG063m

— David Larew (@ThinkTankCharts) September 30, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

China composite PMI vs Copper prices pic.twitter.com/tdHxnmd56o

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) September 30, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Transports testing top of the 5-year trading range. Its run out of gas three times near $200. Will it be different this time? https://t.co/U3R7eurYVh$IYT $SPX @MarketSmith @InvestorsBusinessDaily #IBDinfluencer #IBDpartner pic.twitter.com/yCQx40xIBM

— Chris Kimble (@KimbleCharting) September 24, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

via Blogger https://ift.tt/36is7nZ

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 28

 

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3299, -0.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11050, -3.95%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3219, -3.56%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1864, -4.99%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	40.05, -2.58%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.98, -4.44%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1605, 23.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1631, -1.74%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	105.62, 1.01%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	11270, -1.42%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond ETF)	103.08, -1.69%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.66%, -5.88%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	6, -97.95%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	26.38, 2.13%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	129	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3382, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3351, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3107, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11355, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11299, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10758, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	28.35	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	32.12	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	20.68, 3.14%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	73.69, 0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	4	4
Bearish Indications	13	14
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	India – RBI rate decision, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, US – Employment data, GDP, UK – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

         

        The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish
for the coming week. The recent selloff is finally catching up to one of
the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely
high valuations amid a lot of bearish divergences, a September / October crash is
on the menu following the small dead cat bounce from the 50dma. Low
volatility suggests complacency and more downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first
collapse and we have rallied over 50% in our most recent rally of the lows in a
similar 6 month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly
probable selloff to the 3000 area is emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should
arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is repeating
the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to
repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year-end and we stay there till
2050, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown and the
SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with
economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to
continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as
low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to
trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top
in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short
of a lifetime with non-conformations from the transports, other global
indices, and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and
the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500.

The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is
likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much
faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the
markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for
significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started
in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several
bearish divergences and overstretched valuations. 

We are entering a multi-year great depression. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of
late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 3310 (up) and 3285
(down) on the S & P 500 and 11150
(up) and 11000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger https://ift.tt/36bTSOV

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 21

 

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3320, -0.64%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11505, 0.35%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3338, 2.38%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1958, 0.51%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	41.32, 10.69%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.11, 2.22%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1294, 2.13%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1840, -0.04%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	104.57, -1.49%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	11432, 1.32%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (Bond ETF)	104.85, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.70%, 3.92%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	294, -14.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	25.83, -3.87%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	132	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3425, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3343, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3104, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11470, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11264, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10781, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	28.53	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	32.98	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	20.05, -3.22%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	73.54, 0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	11
Bearish Indications	7	4
Outlook	Neutral	Bullish
Observation	The S and P fell and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	China – PBOC rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was unchanged week. Indicators
are mixed for the coming week. The recent rally to the prior highs on the S and
P 500 is on borrowed time as we experience one of the worst earnings
decline periods in stock market history with extremely high
valuations amid a lot of bearish divergences and a September / October crash is
on the menu following the small dead cat bounce from the 50dma. We
rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we
have rallied over 50% in our most recent rally of the lows in a similar 6 month
period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to
the 3000 area is emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty
in short order. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the  3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500
and lower by year-end and we stay there till 2050, scary? The markets
are very close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.
The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic
realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue
resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels may be as low as
800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the
deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global
equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a
lifetime with non-conformations from the transports, other global
indices, and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and
the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The
recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent
global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster
than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets
are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant
underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.
A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes
like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences
and overstretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year
great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high of late as the yield curve inverts
into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3330
(up) and 3310 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11600
(up) and 11400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You
can check out last week’s report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger https://ift.tt/2ZWEF0b