Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 21

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2713, -0.54%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10596, -1.94%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
3193, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1291, -2.23%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
71.37, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.06, -1.54%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1305, -10.19%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1783, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.77, 1.35%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10731, 0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
High
Yield (ETF)
35.66, -0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
3.07%, 3.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
417, 33.11%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
13.42, 6.09%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
133
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2680, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2678, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2628, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10686, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
10453, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10324, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.15, 1.23%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.98, 0.88%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
7
5
Bearish
Indications
7
11
Outlook
Neutral
Bearish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
UK– CPI, Retail
sales, GDP, Euro – German GDP,
German PMI, German IFO business climate index, ECB meeting minutes, U.S – Home sales, Crude oil
inventories, Powell Speech, FOMC meeting minutes, Durable goods
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals may 21


The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week.
Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets
are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. The yield spike and dollar
strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch
are 2725 (up) and 2700 (down) on the
S & P and 10700 (up) and 10500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the
next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Mid Week Market Insight

Global risk are piling up off late. Whether it be surging US bond yields or the surging dollar that has arisen out of a collapsing Euro following the Italian elections, risks to global asset classes are on the rise. The prospects for a waterfall decline similar to 1987 are fast rising. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT’s of today:

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 14

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2728, 2.41%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10807, 1.77%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3163, 2.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1321, 0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC
Crude
70.70, 1.41%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.11, 0.84%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1453, 5.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1947, -0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
109.30, 0.19%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
10714, 3.31%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.81, 0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.97%, 0.92%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
313, 88.55%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
12.65, -14.35%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2673, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2678, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2622, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10637, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10422, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10305, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
13.98, 5.49%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.39, 0.87%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
10
11
Bearish
Indications
1
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– RBA meeting minutes, Employment data,
China
– Industrial production, Japan
GDP, UK– Employment data, Euro
– German GDP, German ZEW Economic sentiment, Draghi speech, CPI, U.S – Retail sales,   Crude
oil inventories, Canada – CPI,
Retail sales   
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals may 14
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming
week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch
are 2740 (up) and 2715 (down) on the
S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the
next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT’s of today:

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Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT’s of today:

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Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT’s of today:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

via Blogger https://ift.tt/2HNjjr4

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 30

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2670, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10692, 1.21%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3082, 0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1323, -1.11%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
68.10, -0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
3.05, -2.84%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1374, 14.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2136, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
109.09, 1.38%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10549, -0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
High
Yield (ETF)
35.87, -0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.96%, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse
Summation Index
205, -21.74%
Bearish
Neutral
US
Vix
15.41, -8.71%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
128
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2654, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2688, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2611, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10460, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10375, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10266, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
12.02, -7.11%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.51, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
5
8
Bearish
Indications
5
3
Outlook
Neutral
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– RBA rate decision, China PMI, UK– PMI’s, U.S – Home
sales, ISM PMI’s, Oil inventories, FOMC rate decision, Employment data, Canada – Poloz speech, PMI   
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals april 30

Chart courtesy David Rosenberg 

The S and
P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for
the upcoming week. The markets are gearing for a really big directional move
likely post the FED next week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be
priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Indian market
volatility is still well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to
resistance while the US market has hit resistance and turned down. The critical
levels to watch are 2680 (up) and 2660 (down)
on the S & P and 10750 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the
above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Bond Yields and Asset Allocation

While the current focus is on US 10 year bond yields pushing through 3% what is more important is the implication of surging bond yields for asset allocation decisions. First a look at a chart comparing 10 year bond yields to the earnings yield on the S and P 500. Thanks to the relentless QE’s from the Fed the earnings yield is still well above the 10 year bond yield though the differential has narrowed considerably of late:

data source: multpl.com, St. Louis Fed

Next a look at a chart comparing 2 year bond yields to the dividend yield on the S and P 500. After a very long period of time 2 year bond yields have now eclipsed the dividend yield on the S and P 500. Thus risk free assets are going to look increasingly attractive when compared to risky assets like stocks if yields surge further:
data source: multpl.com, St. Louis Fed

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 23

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2670, 0.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10564, 0.80%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3072, -2.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1338, -0.71%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
68.40, 1.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.13, 2.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
1201, 20.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2304, -0.32%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
107.60, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
10579, 2.02%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.99, -0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.95%, 4.31%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
262, 132.95%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
16.88, -3.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
133
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2645, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2687, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2606, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10332, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10364, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10242, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
12.94, -8.50%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.19, 1.52%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
9
11
Bearish
Indications
4
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– CPI, Japan BoJ rate decision, GDP, Euro Zone – German PMI, German IFO
business climate index, German employment data, ECB rate decision, UK– GDP, Retail sales, U.S – Home sales, Consumer
confidence, Oil inventories, Durable goods, GDP, Canada – Poloz speech, Russia – Rate decision   
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

Chart courtesy David Rosenberg 

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming
week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Indian market volatility is still
well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the
US market has hit resistance and turned down. The critical levels to watch are 2680 (up) and 2660 (down) on the S & P and 10650 (up) and 10500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the
next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 16

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2656, 1.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10481, 1.44%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3159, 0.89%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1348, 0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC
Crude
67.39, 8.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.07, 0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic
Dry Index
993, 4.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2344, 0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
107.35, 0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
10370, 2.20%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.16, 1.18%
Bullish
Bullish
US
10 year Bond Yield
2.78%, 1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
113, 262.20%
Bullish
Neutral
US
Vix
17.41, -18.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
126
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2649, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2690, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2599, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
10243, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
10400, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10216, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
14.14, -4.12%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.20, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
11
13
Bearish
Indications
2
1
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On
the Horizon
Australia
– RBA minutes, Employment data, New
Zealand
– CPI, China
Industrial production, GDP, Euro Zone
German ZEW economic sentiment, CPI, UK
Employment data, CPI, Retail sales, U.S
– Retail sales, Oil inventories, Canada
– BOC rate decision, CPI, Retail sales   
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral

stock market signals april 16
Chart courtesy David Rosenberg 

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming
week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Indian market volatility is still
well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the
US market is close to major support so there is complacency and some catch up
left on the down side in India. The critical levels to watch are 2670 (up) and 2645 (down) on the S & P and 10550 (up) and 10400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the
next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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