Chinese Yuan Warning Major Correction Ahead?

The Chinese Yuan is well correlated to risk assets. A sudden depreciation in the Yuan has often lead to major sell offs in risk assets. With the Yuan depreciating appreciably in the last few weeks a major sell off in risk assets maybe just around the corner:

Yuan
spx

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 20

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2860, -0.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
11407,
1.14%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
2882, -1.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1277, -0.82%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
62.92,
2.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.73, -0.87%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1040, 2.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1160,
-0.68%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.08,
0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
10492,
-1.04%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
107.40,
-0.32%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10
year Bond Yield
2.39%,
-1.73%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
591, -18.73%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
15.96,
-0.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
119
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2900, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2869, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2777, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
11512,
Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
11467,
Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
11040,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
28.08,
6.61%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
70.35,
0.59%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
5
6
Bearish
Indications
9
10
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S
and P 500 was down and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bearish for
the week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
Japan – GDP, Euro Zone – German
GDP, UK – CPI, India – Election results
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals may 20

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top
in global equity markets
. The market has rallied 600 points from the
December lows but a 5 year bear market
is in the making with a secondary top in place
. The trend is changing from
bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty
going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded
the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the
Indian market in 2019. A 5 year
deflationary wave
is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg
omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high
off late as the yield curve inverts.
The critical levels to watch for the week
are 2870 (up) and 2850 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11500 (up) and 11300
(down)
 on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s 
report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://bit.ly/2JQiFgn

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 13

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2881, -2.18%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
11279,
-3.70%
Neutral
**
Bearish
China
Shanghai Index
2939, -4.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1287, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
61.73,
-0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.78, -1.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
1013, 2.84%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1235,
0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
109.97,
-1.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow
Transports
10602,
-3.25%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
107.75,
-0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10
year Bond Yield
2.47%,
-2.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
727, -20.86%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
16.04,
24.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
119
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2914, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA,
S and P 500
2862, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2776, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
11612,
Below
Neutral
Bearish
50
DMA, Nifty
11425,
Below
Neutral
Bearish
200
DMA, Nifty
11034,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
26.34,
9.58%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.93,
1.09%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
4
3
Bearish
Indications
8
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the
week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
Euro
Zone
– German
GDP, CPI, UK – Employment data
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals may 13

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top
in global equity markets
. The market has rallied 600 points from the
December lows but a 5 year bear market
is in the making
. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking
for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting
there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A
5 year deflationary wave is about to
start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a
number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 2895
(up) and 2870 (down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11350 (up) and 11200 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://bit.ly/2LEbNoZ

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 06

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2946, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11712,
-0.36%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3078, -0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1280, -0.59%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
61.86,
-2.27%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.82, -2.56%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
985, 10.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1203,
0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
111.11,
-0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
10959,
0.71%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.09,
-0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10
year Bond Yield
2.53%,
1.20%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
918, -5.37%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.87,
1.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
122
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2914, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA,
S and P 500
2852, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2774, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
11672,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
11355,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
11022,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
24.03,
10.66%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.18,
-0.96%
Neutral
Bullish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
5
6
Bearish
Indications
6
6
Outlook
Bearish
Neutral
Observation
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed
for the week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
US – PPI, CPI, UK – GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals may 06

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top
in global equity markets
. The market has rallied 600 points from the
December lows but a 5 year bear market
is in the making
. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking
for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting
there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A
5 year deflationary wave is about to
start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a
number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 2960
(up) and 2930 (down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11800 (up) and 11650 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://bit.ly/2LkdkjE

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 29

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2940, 1.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11755,
0.02%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3086, -5.64%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1288, 0.74%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
62.84,
-1.81%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.89, -1.06%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
869, 10.00%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1154,
-0.84%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.58,
-0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
10881,
-0.97%
Bearish
Bearish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.25,
0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10
year Bond Yield
2.50%,
-2.33%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
971, -7.30%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.73,
5.29%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
126
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2896, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA,
S and P 500
2836, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2771, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
11655,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
11298,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
11008,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
21.72,
-4.48%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
69.85,
0.69%
Neutral
Bearish
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
7
8
Bearish
Indications
7
7
Outlook
Neutral
Bullish
Observation
The S
and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed
for the week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
US – FOMC rate decision, Employment
data, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – BOE rate
decision
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals april 29

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last
week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top
in global equity markets
. The market has rallied 600 points from the
December lows but a 5 year bear market
is in the making
. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking
for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting
there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A
5 year deflationary wave is about to
start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a
number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 2950
(up) and 2930 (down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11650 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://bit.ly/2XUrjhp

Posted in Stock Market | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 22

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2905, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11753,
0.94%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3271, 2.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1278, -0.98%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
64.07,
0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.92, -0.78%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
790, 8.82%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1246,
-0.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.92,
-0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
10988,
0.70%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.14,
-0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10
year Bond Yield
2.56%,
0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse
Summation Index
1047, -1.65%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.09,
0.67%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
124
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2866, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2816, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2766, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
11604,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
11203,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10983,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
22.73,
8.27%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.39,
0.32%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
6
7
Bearish
Indications
5
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S
and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mildly
bullish for the week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
US – GDP, Japan – BOJ rate
decision
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals april 22

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last
week. Indicators are mildly bullish for
the upcoming week. QE forever from the
FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very
close to a major secondary top in global equity markets
. The market got its
oversold bounce of about 550 points but a 5
year bear market is in the making
. The trend is changing from bullish to
bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward
on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix
suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market
in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave
is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities
amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 2920
(up) and 2890 (down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11650 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://bit.ly/2DrtZeH

Posted in Stock Market | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 15

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2907, 0.51%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11643,
-0.19%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3189, -1.78%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1294, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC
Crude
63.80,
1.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.94, 1.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
726, 2.11%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1306,
0.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.03,
0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow
Transports
10912,
1.66%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
36.22,
0.70%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10
year Bond Yield
2.56%,
2.38%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
1065, 6.76%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.01,
-6.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
124
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2853, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2801, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2763, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
11563,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
11179,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10969,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
21, 14.16%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.16 -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
12
12
Bearish
Indications
2
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S
and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish
for the week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
US – Retail sales, Euro Zone
– CPI, UK – Employment data, CPI, China – GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals april 15

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last
week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to a major
secondary top in global equity markets
. The market got its oversold bounce
of about 550 points but a 5 year bear
market is in the making
. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish.
Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there
may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to
start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a
number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 2920
(up) and 2890 (down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11750 (up) and 11550 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

via Blogger http://bit.ly/2Gbri1E

Posted in Stock Market | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 08

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2893, 2.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11666,
0.36%
Neutral
**
Neutral
China
Shanghai Index
3247, 5.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1296, 0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
63.27,
5.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.89, -2.79%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic
Dry Index
711, 3.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1229,
0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
111.71,
0.64%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10734,
3.14%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.97,
0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10
year Bond Yield
2.50%,
2.92%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse
Summation Index
997, 14.00%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.82,
-6.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2831, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA,
S and P 500
2779, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2759, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
11468,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
11088,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10947,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
18.39,
7.03%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.23 -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
11
10
Bearish
Indications
2
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the
week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
US – CPI, PPI, Euro Zone – ECB
rate decision, UK – GDP
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals april 08

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to a major
secondary top in global equity markets
. The market got its oversold bounce
of about 550 points but a 5 year bear
market is in the making
. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish.
Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there
may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to
start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a
number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is
yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2905 (up) and 2880
(down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11750 (up) and 11600 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 01

Indicator
Weekly
Level / Change
Implication
for
S
& P 500
Implication
for Nifty*
S
& P 500
2834, 1.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11624,
1.46%
Neutral
**
Bullish
China
Shanghai Index
3091, -0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1297, -1.17%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC
Crude
60.20,
1.96%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.93, 3.39%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic
Dry Index
689, -0.14%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.1218,
-0.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.86,
0.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow
Transports
10408,
3.54%
Bullish
Bullish
High
Yield (ETF)
35.97,
0.73%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10
year Bond Yield
2.41%,
-1.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse
Summation Index
875, -5.34%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.71,
-16.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
121
Neutral
Neutral
20
DMA, S and P 500
2804, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50
DMA, S and P 500
2756, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200
DMA, S and P 500
2756, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20
DMA, Nifty
11291,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
50
DMA, Nifty
11013,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
200
DMA, Nifty
10926,
Above
Neutral
Bullish
India
Vix
17.19,
5.59%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.40 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral
Overall
S
& P 500
Nifty
Bullish
Indications
10
12
Bearish
Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the
week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse
. Watch those stops.
On the
Horizon
US – Employment data, Euro Zone
–CPI, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw
Data
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals april 01

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are making a major secondary
top in global equity markets
. The market got its oversold bounce of about
450 points but a 5 year bear market is
in the making
. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for
significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there
may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to
start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a
number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is
yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2845 (up) and 2820
(down)
 on the S & P 500 and 11700 (up) and 11500 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s 
report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Indicators that Matter

There is a plethora of indicators to track while evaluating financial markets. Here are some important ones:

1) The Chinese Yuan:

The Chinese Yuan is often a proxy for the risk on trade. Periods of strength in the Chinese Yuan as seen in the last 3 months, have often been accompanied by up moves  in risk assets such as stocks, commodities and emerging market currencies:

source:investing.com


chinese yuan
2) The S and P 500 Price to Sales Ratio:

This is a key valuation measure and price to sales ratios greater than 2 have often symbolized over valuation while ratios lower than 1 have produced undervalued buy opportunities:

source: multpl.com


valuation

3) The Yield Curve:

The yield curve is a very reliable economic indicator and an inverted yield curve like we have now has often been followed by recessions or periods of rapidly slowing growth, while an upward sloping yield curve is often indicative of an expanding economy:

source: ETF Trends
yield curve

4) CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Indicator:

This is a sentiment indicator which is a combination of several sentiment indicators and indicates whether market participants are fearful or greedy:

source: CNN Money


fear and greed

5) The Skew Vix Ratio:

This indicator is another sentiment indicator and values below 5 tend to mark panic bottoms while values above 15 tend to mark complacent tops. This ratio has been making lower highs and lower tops of late suggesting that there may be one more panic bottom in the not too distant future:

source: Stock Charts

skew vix ratio

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